AGP Executive Report

World Cup Infrastructure in Ecuador’s Orbit: Ecuador’s group-stage match vs Germany is set for June 25 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with the tournament also featuring Ecuador vs Germany in the broader North America schedule. Host City Focus: Philadelphia will stage six matches at Lincoln Financial Field, including Ivory Coast vs Ecuador on June 14, as the city leans into tourism and fan events. Aviation & Trade Connectivity: Air Canada and Abra Group signed an MoU to expand travel and cargo links across the Americas, signaling more capacity and tighter commercial integration for shippers. Regional Politics Watch: Peru’s presidential runoff on June 7 pits Keiko Fujimori against Roberto Sánchez, with crime driving voter concerns and the result seen as a test for Latin America’s rightward shift. Climate Risk for Industry: El Niño forecasts are strengthening, with warnings of major rainfall swings that could disrupt agriculture, water, and power planning across the region. Trade Policy Pressure: Indonesia says the U.S. is set to grant 18 tariff exclusions under Section 301, a reminder that forced-labor rules are reshaping industrial costs and export competitiveness.

Trade & Industry Diplomacy: AMCHAM T&T CEO Nirad Tewarie met a senior US official in Quito to push back on tariffs hitting Trinidad and Tobago petrochemical exports that support US agriculture, with talks focused on reciprocity and competitiveness. Ecuador Security & Organized Crime: A new analysis says Ecuador’s criminal landscape is fragmenting and diversifying under the Noboa administration’s pressure campaign, with more armed groups and localized violence. Ecuador Justice Update: Prosecutors reported eight bodies found in jute sacks abandoned along the Jujan–Babahoyo road in Los Ríos, with investigators checking links to missing youths. Manufacturing (Textiles): Navis TubeTex says an Ecuadorian apparel producer (Pinto) installed an open-width knit finishing line to cut costs while targeting high-quality shrinkage control. Climate Risk for Food/Power: Colombia braces for El Niño impacts, with warnings of heat, water shortages, fires, and stress on agriculture and energy. World Cup Local Economy: Ecuador’s World Cup presence is boosting Cuenca’s daily commerce and public life, from taxis and restaurants to match-day routines.

El Niño Watch for Ecuador-linked risks: Colombia is bracing for an El Niño event with 80% odds, warning of heat waves, water shortages, bush fires, and pressure on food and energy production—an alert that matters for Ecuador’s agriculture and water planning too. Tourism & climate-driven demand: Travel And Tour World (TTW) released its 2026 “coolcation” ranking, placing Quito among the top cooler escapes in the Americas, reflecting how extreme heat is reshaping where Ecuadorians and regional travelers plan trips. Ecuador industry upgrade (textiles): Navis TubeTex says an Ecuadorian apparel producer, Pinto, installed a full open-width knit finishing line to cut costs while improving quality and shrinkage control. Aviation disruption in Guayaquil: Iberia’s Airbus A350 was damaged during a water-cannon salute at José Joaquín de Olmedo Airport, forcing cancellation of the Madrid return flight. Blue economy & jobs: A World Bank-linked focus highlights how women sustain Ecuador’s coastal value chain in artisanal fishing, processing, and marketing—key for jobs and ocean sustainability. Payments & remittances: Oobit reports USDT dominates stablecoin volumes in Ecuador (near 100%), signaling continued growth in crypto-based cash-like payments across LatAm. Organized crime pressure: A new analysis says Ecuador’s criminal landscape is fragmenting and diversifying under government pressure, driving instability and violence across more localities. Security incident (Los Ríos): Prosecutors report eight bodies found in jute sacks along the Jujan–Babahoyo road, with investigators checking links to missing people and possible organized crime.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. is moving toward new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, proposing 10% for some partners including Ecuador and 12.5% for others, with public comments and hearings before a likely final decision by late July—exporters are being urged to tighten supply-chain traceability. Aviation & Logistics: An Iberia Airbus A350 was damaged at Guayaquil during a water-cannon salute, forcing the cancellation of its return flight to Madrid and highlighting operational risks for modern widebody aircraft. Blue Economy & Jobs: Ecuador’s coastal “blue economy” is being driven by women across fishing, processing, and marketing, with a World Bank Group report spotlighting how gender inclusion can strengthen ocean-based livelihoods. Security & Illicit Mining: A report links the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to expanding illegal mercury trafficking tied to gold extraction across Latin America, raising environmental and regional security concerns. Policy & Regional Stability: The U.S. and the Shield of the Americas condemned Bolivia unrest tied to attempts to disrupt food and medicine deliveries, with Ecuador among the signatories.

Climate Risk & Agriculture: NOAA warns this year’s shift toward El Niño could be among the fastest on record, raising alarms for food and water impacts across the Americas. Water & Engineering (Ecuador): Caltech Engineers Without Borders helped Tandacato (near Cotopaxi) rebuild a protected water catchment and replace 2.5 km of pipeline after landslides buried key infrastructure—aiming to restore clean drinking water for about 500 families. Trade & Supply Chains: The U.S. proposes new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labour rules, with Ecuador named among countries facing scrutiny—pushing exporters to strengthen traceability and compliance. Ecuador Governance: President Daniel Noboa announced a second cabinet reshuffle, merging eight ministries/secretariats into three portfolios to “optimize” state functions. Prisons & Humanitarian Crisis: An investigation reports at least 1,220 inmate deaths in Ecuador’s prisons in 2025, driven largely by disease and systemic neglect. Industry/Business: Two casino investors file a second ICSID claim against Ecuador after an earlier treaty case was dismissed.

US Trade Policy: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies after forced-labor findings, with Ecuador included in the 10% tier—hearings set for July 7—raising new cost risks for exporters and supply chains. Ecuador Security & Industry Impact: A new analysis says Ecuador’s criminal landscape is fragmenting fast, with more armed groups and violence across provinces, adding instability pressures that can disrupt logistics, labor, and production. Energy & Commodities: South America’s oil export boom is shifting supply toward Brazil and Guyana while Ecuador output declines, reshaping regional shipping and refinery planning. Agriculture & Trade: China is set to apply a 55% tariff on Australian beef once quotas are hit, a reminder that livestock trade rules can swing quickly and ripple into global food sourcing. Climate Signals for Ecuador: NASA reports a warm Pacific “Kelvin wave” moving toward South America, pointing to likely El Niño conditions that can affect water, agriculture, and energy demand.

US Tariff Shock for Ecuador-linked Trade: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from about 60 economies, citing failures to block goods made with forced labor—with Ecuador named among the affected countries; the plan is still open for comments and hearings, but it signals higher costs risk for regional exporters and supply chains. Forced-Labor Dispute Escalates: Australia’s anti-slavery commissioner called the U.S. move a “distraction,” while India says it’s engaged in talks tied to the same forced-labor probe—showing how labor rules are becoming a trade battleground. El Niño Signals for Ecuador’s Economy: NASA’s Sentinel-6 data shows a warm Kelvin wave moving toward the South American coast, with seas off Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru running above averages—raising stakes for weather-sensitive sectors like agriculture and logistics. Health & Safety Procurement: Lakeland Fire + Safety received notice of an intended £220M UK framework award for firefighter PPE, a reminder of ongoing demand for protective gear supply chains. Tourism Tie-in for Ecuador: Aruba’s tourism authority trained Ecuadorian operators in wedding/romance tourism, pushing a new niche for local travel businesses.

US Tariff Shock for Ecuador-linked trade: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed new Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from about 60 economies, citing failures to enforce bans on goods made with forced labour; Ecuador is listed among the countries facing the 10% rate, with public comments due July 6 and hearings set for July 7. Diplomatic pushback: India says it’s in talks with Washington while negotiating an interim trade framework, as the U.S. moves forward with the forced-labour probe. Local supply-chain ripple: A separate U.S. move also targets apparel/textiles with a special reduced-rate mechanism, raising compliance and sourcing questions for exporters. Aviation watch: The FAA is investigating a close call involving a JetBlue flight from Ecuador near Fort Lauderdale, after an alert warned of an aircraft not in communications. Ecuador security: Police found eight bodies in plastic bags near Babahoyo amid gang violence linked to Los Lobos. Weather risk for food systems: Coverage highlights a possible “Super El Niño,” warning of stronger drought/flood impacts that could hit regional agriculture and water planning.

US Tariff Shock for Ecuador and beyond: The U.S. Trade Representative proposed new Section 301 tariffs up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, citing failures to curb goods made with forced labor—including Ecuador, which would face 10% under the plan. Climate Risk for Food and Water: Coverage warns a possible “Super El Niño” could intensify droughts, floods, extreme heat and disrupt water, food systems and forests. Ecuador Security Update: Police reported eight bodies in plastic bags near Babahoyo amid gang violence tied to Los Lobos vs. Los Choneros. Power Market Watch: Ecuador may see limits on Colombia-to-Ecuador electricity transfers as El Niño threatens hydro generation. Aviation Safety: The FAA is investigating a close call involving a JetBlue flight approaching Fort Lauderdale. World Cup Logistics & Industry: FIFA watch parties are set at Gulfstream Park’s Carousel Club (June 11–July 19), while Ecuador’s World Cup presence continues to draw attention.

US Trade Policy Shock: The Trump administration proposed new tariffs on imports from 60 economies over alleged failures to stop goods made with forced labour, with duties set at 10% for some countries (including Ecuador) and 12.5% for the rest, now heading to a public comment period. Ecuador Trade Ripples: Ecuador is directly named in the 10% group, putting local exporters and supply chains in the spotlight as Washington tightens enforcement under Section 301. Illicit Trade via Ports: Hungarian authorities seized a record 522 kg cocaine shipment hidden in bananas sent from Ecuador, routed through Germany—another reminder of how agricultural logistics can be exploited. Ecuador Industry & Culture: Ecuador’s national team will wear Montecristi hats made from toquilla straw at the 2026 World Cup, with QR traceability aimed at boosting artisan weaving and market transparency. Climate Risk for Industry: The UN warned El Niño could intensify drought, heavy rain, and heatwaves—conditions that can disrupt farming, energy, and construction planning across the region.

El Niño Watch: The UN weather agency says El Niño is likely to persist until November, with above-average temperatures from June to August and higher risks of drought, heavy rain, heatwaves and hurricanes—an urgent signal for Ecuador’s agriculture, energy and disaster planning. Border Security & Mining: Ecuador’s military crackdown targets illegal gold mines near the Colombian border, aiming to curb toxic, unregulated extraction and protect communities, after authorities estimate 120+ illicit sites in two northern cantons. Trade & Industry: Ecuador and Colombia move to end a costly tariff dispute after Ecuador removed customs security fees on Colombian imports, easing pressure on medicines, cosmetics and industrial inputs. Legal/Energy Risk: Chevron appoints a new general counsel as it navigates complex global legal issues—another reminder of how energy and investment rules can shape regional transitions. Public Safety Procurement: Lakeland Fire + Safety expands Latin American orders, including Ecuador, for fire protection gear via competitive tenders. Tech for Health: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics expand access to blood tests for Alzheimer’s amyloid pathology across Ecuador and the region. Agribusiness & Food Systems: A University of Idaho tour highlights potato production and storage know-how, reflecting growing demand for practical training across Ecuador’s food value chains.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Reset: Ecuador’s customs authority has removed the 100% security tariff on Colombian imports, cutting the surcharge to 0% effective June 1 and ending a dispute that hit medicines, cosmetics, plastics and rubber while also triggering retaliatory pressure. Colombia Runoff Politics: Colombia’s first-round vote has sent the country to a June 21 runoff after far-right Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella led with about 43–44%, forcing a clash with leftist Iván Cepeda amid claims of voting irregularities. Health & Diagnostics in Ecuador: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics will expand access to Precivity® blood tests for Alzheimer’s amyloid assessment across Latin America, with initial focus including Ecuador. Food & Retail in Cuenca: Mall del Alto in Cuenca is drawing local food brands into a bigger market, adding dozens of homegrown concepts alongside major chains since its May 22 opening. Labor Rights Watch: Bangladesh exited the ITUC’s worst-10 workers’ rights list for the first time since 2017 after reforms, while Panama and Argentina also face bottom-category pressure in the latest index. Ecuador Prison Health Alert: Ecuadorian political actors are raising alarms over former VP Jorge Glas’s health in maximum-security detention, alleging he was unconscious for hours.

Trade & Customs: Ecuador’s customs authority moved to end its tariff dispute with Colombia by abolishing the 100% tariff on Colombian goods starting June 1, cutting the security surcharge to zero and aiming to boost legal trade and joint anti-illicit efforts. Politics & Security: Colombia’s presidential race is headed to a June 21 runoff after far-right Abelardo de la Espriella led the first round, while President Gustavo Petro and Ivan Cepeda rejected preliminary results and raised concerns about the voter registry. Industry & Logistics: Ticketplus, a Chile-based live entertainment ticketing tech firm with operations and licensing across Ecuador and the region, filed an F-1 for a proposed Nasdaq IPO. Environment & Enforcement: A wildlife trafficking report flags Ecuador and the wider region as hubs where illegal hunting and marine fin exports tie into organized crime networks. Agriculture & Trade: India-Oman CEPA took effect June 1, granting immediate duty-free access on most tariff lines—an example of how new trade deals are reshaping export flows. Public Health & Food Safety: South Florida’s “Dirty Dining” crackdown shut multiple restaurants, including Steak ’n Shake, after rodent and sanitation violations were found.

Colombia Election Shock: Far-right Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Iván Cepeda head to a June 21 runoff after a first-round result that Petro and Cepeda both rejected, citing “atypical” voting patterns and electoral-roll concerns. Ecuador–Colombia Trade Tension: Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa moved to lift tariffs on Colombian goods effective June 1 after a meeting with de la Espriella, triggering Colombia’s foreign ministry backlash over “deliberate interference” in the election. Maritime Security & Drugs: US strikes on suspected drug boats in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean pushed deaths past 200, while INTERPOL-backed operations across the region seized thousands of firearms and 56 tonnes of drugs. Energy Supply Watch: US crude imports hit a rare pause from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, while Ecuador still appears among suppliers in recent EIA figures. Ecuador Industry & Environment: Ecuador’s tariff and trade moves come alongside local policy signals like bans on chlorpyrifos and ongoing attention to water and environmental risks.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Tension: President Daniel Noboa announced Ecuador will lift tariffs on Colombian goods starting June 1 after a short call with far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, a move Colombia’s foreign ministry called “deliberate interference” in the election process. Security & Trade Spillover: The tariff fight is tied to border security and anti-narcoterrorism cooperation, with Ecuador’s earlier “security tax” escalating to 100% before the reversal. Ecuador’s Shrimp Industry Under Pressure: A new curfew targeting drug violence across key provinces (including Pichincha and Guayas) threatens shrimp output by cutting operating hours with no sector exemptions, just as producers also face higher fuel costs and US import tariffs. Regional Environmental Risk: Latin American environmental defenders are uniting in Lima to push back against criminalization and violence tied to water and territory protection, amid high murder rates linked to extractive projects. Energy Market Signal: US data shows zero crude imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Libya for the week, while supply shifts toward the Americas (including Ecuador).

Nuclear Security: UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi warns that attacks on nuclear power plants are becoming a dangerous “pattern,” citing incidents near Barakah in the UAE and concerns around sites in Ukraine and Iran. Regional Trade & Politics: Ecuador will lift tariffs on Colombian imports starting June 1 after President Daniel Noboa met with far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella—prompting Colombia to accuse Ecuador of “deliberate interference” in its election. Public Safety & Crime: INTERPOL-backed operation ORCA XI reports seizures of 3,308 illegal firearms and 56 tonnes of drugs across 20 countries, with thousands of arrests and regional cooperation support. Ecuador Industry Impact: A curfew tied to drug-gang violence threatens Ecuador’s shrimp boom, with producers warning that reduced operating hours and no-sector exemptions could disrupt supply chains. Sports & Local Economy: Ecuador’s national team begins World Cup preparations in Columbus, using the Crew’s facilities as a home base ahead of June matches.